Rodopa Smolyan vs Maritsa Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Rodopa Smolyan and 1.01 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Rodopa Smolyan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rodopa Smolyan win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rodopa Smolyan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritsa Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rodopa Smolyan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Rodopa Smolyan and 1.01 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rodopa Smolyan win55%

Draw23%

Maritsa Plovdiv win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–011.0%
2–19.8%
2–09.7%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Rodopa Smolyan

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nesebar · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)

Maritsa Plovdiv

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rodopa Smolyan win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.