Stadio Tre Fontane · Analysis updated 13:55 UTC
Roma U20 vs Sassuolo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Roma U20 and 1.40 for Sassuolo U20, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Roma U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Roma U20 win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sassuolo U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roma U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Roma U20 and 1.40 for Sassuolo U20, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Roma U20
Sassuolo U20
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna U20 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina U20 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Bologna U20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Empoli U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Roma U20 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Genoa U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Lazio U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Fiorentina U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Lecce U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Cesena U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Milan U20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Como U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Torino U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Sassuolo U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Juventus U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Hellas Verona U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Atalanta U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Roma U20 win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.