Stadionul Steaua · Referee Rohit Saggi, Norway · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Romania vs Wales Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Romania and 1.25 for Wales, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Wales the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wales win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Romania home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wales away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wales to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 22% / 30% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Romania and 1.25 for Wales, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–010.2%
Recent form
Romania
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Poland · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Wales · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 1-1 (D)
Wales
- 2026-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Denmark · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Denmark · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Portugal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Romania · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wales win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.