Romontois vs Châtel-St-Denis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Romontois and 0.98 for Châtel-St-Denis, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Romontois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Romontois win

76.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.89 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Romontois home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Châtel-St-Denis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Romontois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Romontois and 0.98 for Châtel-St-Denis, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Romontois win76%

Draw14%

Châtel-St-Denis win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–08.7%
2–18.5%
3–08.4%
3–18.2%
4–06.1%

Recent form

Romontois

2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Martigny Sports · 1-5 (L)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Collombey-Muraz · 2-5 (L)
2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Echichens · 1-2 (L)
2025-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vernier · 2-2 (D)
2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Farvagny / Ogoz · 0-2 (L)

Châtel-St-Denis

2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Echichens · 0-5 (L)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vernier · 1-4 (L)
2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farvagny / Ogoz · 2-4 (L)
2025-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pully Football · 0-1 (L)
2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga Interregional - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amical Saint-Prex	30	18	7	5	19	61
2	Martigny Sports	30	18	5	7	30	59
3	Collex-Bossy	30	13	13	4	18	52
4	Terre Sainte	30	12	9	9	13	45
5	Farvagny / Ogoz	30	12	8	10	4	44
6	Pully Football	30	12	7	11	-3	43
7	Olympique de Genève	30	11	10	9	1	43
8	Vernier	30	11	9	10	6	42
9	UGS	30	11	7	12	1	40
10	Concordia Lausanne	30	10	7	13	3	37
11	Signal	30	9	10	11	-4	37
12	Echichens	30	9	9	12	-7	36
13	Collombey-Muraz	30	9	8	13	-4	35
14	Romontois	30	10	5	15	-13	35
15	Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III	30	9	5	16	-15	32
16	Châtel-St-Denis	30	4	5	21	-49	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Romontois win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.