· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Roosendaal vs FC Lisse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Roosendaal and 1.25 for FC Lisse, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC Lisse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roosendaal home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lisse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lisse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Roosendaal and 1.25 for FC Lisse, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.2% vs market 39.5%, edge +11.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.5% | 51.2% | 1.95 | +11.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 61.2% | 61.4% | 1.63 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.5% | 38.6% | 2.59 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 33.8% | 33.8% | 2.96 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.7% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.8% | 66.2% | 1.51 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 60.5% | 48.8% | 2.05 | -11.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Roosendaal
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zwaluwen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:15:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vvsb · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-2 (L)
FC Lisse
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gemert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · Roosendaal 0-1 FC Lisse (Derde Divisie)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Roosendaal 2-3 FC Lisse (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2025-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Roosendaal 2-1 FC Lisse (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harkemase Boys | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | ACV | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Poortugaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Dongen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | GOES | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | ADO '20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Hoogeveen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | TOGB | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Eemdijk | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 13 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.