Gigante de Arroyito · Referee Pablo Echavarria, Argentina · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Rosario Central vs Aldosivi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rosario Central and 0.70 for Aldosivi, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Rosario Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rosario Central win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosario Central home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aldosivi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosario Central to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Rosario Central and 0.70 for Aldosivi, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rosario Central win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.