Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre · Referee Hernan Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 23:01 UTC
Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Rosario Central and 0.52 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Rosario Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rosario Central win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosario Central home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosario Central to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Rosario Central and 0.52 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.9%
- 1–014.3%
- 3–011.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.53 | 60.9% | 63.8% | 1.57 | +2.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.9% | 92.9% | 1.08 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.20 | 22.8% | 23.4% | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 16.1% | 16.3% | 6.13 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 76.7% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.2% | 7.1% | 14.08 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 85.3% | 83.7% | 1.19 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.38 | 39.1% | 36.2% | 2.76 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-31T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-24T22:15:00.000Z · Rosario Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rosario Central win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.