Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre · Referee Yael Falcon Perez · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Rosario Central vs Huracan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Rosario Central and 0.68 for Huracan, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Rosario Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rosario Central win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosario Central home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 64.5% vs market 56.6%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.6% | 64.5% | 1.55 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.0% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 50.1% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.0% | 80.0% | 1.25 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.4% | 19.9% | 5.03 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.4% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-0 (W)
Huracan
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T20:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-3 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-05-18T22:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-27T22:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-01T00:15:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-2 Huracan (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-06T23:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-0 Huracan (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-03-21T00:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 2-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-06-11T00:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-2 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-05-03T00:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-2 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-12-11T20:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-4 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rosario Central win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.