Estadio Gigante de Arroyito · Referee F. Tello · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rosario Central and 0.92 for Independ. Rivadavia, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Rosario Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rosario Central win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosario Central home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independ. Rivadavia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.6% | 72.1% | 1.39 | +2.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.18 | 79.2% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.5% | 25.9% | 3.86 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.70 | 54.7% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 45.4% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 54.7% | 53.9% | 1.86 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.7% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.50 | 20.8% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 30.0% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-23T01:15:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-05T00:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-08T22:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2013-04-08T19:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 3-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2012-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · Rosario Central 2-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2012-04-10T00:15:00.000Z · Rosario Central 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
- 2011-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · Rosario Central 0-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rosario Central win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.