Estadio Gigante de Arroyito · Referee H. Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 21:02 UTC
Rosario Central vs Tigre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rosario Central and 0.90 for Tigre, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Rosario Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosario Central home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosario Central to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Rosario Central and 0.90 for Tigre, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
Tigre
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.