Koteng Arena · Referee M. B. Folstad · Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
Rosenborg W vs Stabæk W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Rosenborg W and 0.90 for Stabæk W, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Rosenborg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rosenborg W win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rosenborg W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stabæk W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosenborg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Rosenborg W and 0.90 for Stabæk W, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 48.7% vs market 39.9%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.9% | 48.7% | 2.05 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.4% | 83.9% | 1.19 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.0% | 16.2% | 6.17 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 63.0% | 63.0% | 1.59 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.2% | 79.2% | 1.26 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.0% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.4% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 51.3% | 1.95 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rosenborg W
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Liberec W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stabæk W · 4-2 (W)
Stabæk W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs LSK Kvinner W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodø / Glimt W · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toppserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann W | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortuna Ålesund W | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 50 |
| 3 | Rosenborg W | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Vålerenga W | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | Lyn W | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 32 |
| 6 | Stabæk W | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Haugesund W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -16 | 24 |
| 8 | Hønefoss W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -15 | 19 |
| 9 | Molde W | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | Røa W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 17 |
| 11 | LSK Kvinner W | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 15 |
| 12 | Bodø / Glimt W | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | -61 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rosenborg W win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.