Rosengård vs Hässleholms IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Rosengård and 1.55 for Hässleholms IF, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Hässleholms IF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rosengård home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hässleholms IF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Rosengård and 1.55 for Hässleholms IF, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Rosengård win35%

Draw24%

Hässleholms IF win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–28.8%
0–18.0%
2–18.0%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Rosengård

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atvidabergs FF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angelholms FF · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 3-4 (L)

Hässleholms IF

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	26	17	6	3	29	57
2	Hässleholms IF	26	15	3	8	17	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	13	8	5	14	47
4	Lund	26	12	8	6	18	44
5	AFC Malmo	26	12	8	6	12	44
6	Rosengård	26	10	9	7	4	39
7	Trollhättan	26	10	8	8	4	38
8	Tvååker	26	9	7	10	-6	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	9	6	11	2	33
10	Olympic	26	10	3	13	-2	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	8	9	9	-9	33
12	Eskilsminne	26	9	5	12	-9	32
13	Kristianstad	26	7	6	13	-10	27
14	Laholm	26	7	5	14	-11	26
15	Angelholms FF	26	5	9	12	-14	24
16	Utsikten	26	2	6	18	-39	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.