Rosengård vs Kristianstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rosengård and 1.07 for Kristianstad, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Rosengård the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rosengård win

52.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rosengård home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kristianstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosengård to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Rosengård and 1.07 for Kristianstad, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rosengård win52%

Draw24%

Kristianstad win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–010.6%
2–19.7%
2–09.0%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Rosengård

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atvidabergs FF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angelholms FF · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 3-4 (L)

Kristianstad

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Malmo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lund · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Laholm · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonkopings Sodra · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	16	3	8	18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
4	Lund	27	12	8	7	16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	12	8	7	11	44
6	Rosengård	27	10	10	7	4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	10	8	9	2	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	10	6	11	3	36
9	Olympic	27	11	3	13	1	36
10	Tvååker	27	9	8	10	-6	35
11	Skövde AIK	27	8	10	9	-9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	9	6	12	-9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	8	6	13	-8	30
14	Laholm	27	8	5	14	-10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	5	9	13	-15	24
16	Utsikten	27	2	6	19	-42	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rosengård win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.