· Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Roskilde vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Roskilde and 3.15 for Aarhus, a combined total of 5.65. That distribution gives Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Aarhus win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Roskilde home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 31% / 17% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Roskilde and 3.15 for Aarhus, a combined 5.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.7%
- 2–25.5%
- 3–34.8%
- 1–34.6%
- 3–24.5%
Recent form
Roskilde
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skive · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HIK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FA 2000 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brabrand · 1-1 (D)
Aarhus
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silkeborg · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aarhus win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.