Global Energy Stadium · Analysis updated 07:26 UTC
Ross County vs East Kilbride Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ross County and 1.13 for East Kilbride, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Ross County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ross County win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ross County home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
East Kilbride away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ross County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Ross County and 1.13 for East Kilbride, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Ross County
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 5-1 (W)
East Kilbride
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Fife · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Celtic II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alloa Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ross County win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.