Global Energy Stadium · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Ross County vs Forfar Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Ross County and 1.13 for Forfar Athletic, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Ross County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ross County win
83.5% probability
Expected goals
3.75 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ross County home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Forfar Athletic away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ross County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.75 goals for Ross County and 1.13 for Forfar Athletic, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–17.1%
- 3–06.7%
- 4–06.3%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Ross County
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 5-1 (W)
Forfar Athletic
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Annan Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2021-07-10T14:00:00.000Z · Ross County 0-3 Forfar Athletic (League Cup)
- 2019-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · Ross County 2-0 Forfar Athletic (League Cup)
Challenge Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clydebank | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Ross County | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 |
| 3 | Airdrie United | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Elgin City | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Peterhead | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | East Kilbride | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Edinburgh City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | St. Mirren U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Hamilton Academical | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Montrose | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Formartine United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Kelty Hearts | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 18 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Hearts U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -11 | 9 |
| 20 | Annan Athletic | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Spartans | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 22 | Aberdeen U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 23 | East Fife | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 24 | Forfar Athletic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 25 | Berwick Rangers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 26 | Dumbarton | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 27 | Stranraer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 28 | Rangers U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 29 | Clachnacuddin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 30 | Kilmarnock II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 31 | Banks O' Dee | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 4 |
| 32 | Fraserburgh | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 4 |
| 33 | Clyde | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 34 | Dundee United II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 35 | Cumbernauld Colts | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 36 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 2 |
| 37 | Cowdenbeath | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
| 38 | Dundee II | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
| 39 | Hibernian U21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
| 40 | Motherwell U21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ross County win, at 83.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.