Global Energy Stadium · Analysis updated 22:47 UTC
Ross County vs Queen of the South Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Ross County and 0.78 for Queen of the South, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Ross County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ross County win
76.1% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ross County home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queen of the South away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Ross County
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Airdrie United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen of the South · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 4-1 (W)
Queen of the South
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alloa Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · Ross County 8-0 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2025-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · Ross County 1-0 Queen of the South (League Cup)
- 2019-04-26T18:05:00.000Z · Ross County 4-0 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2019-01-12T15:00:00.000Z · Ross County 0-4 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2018-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Ross County 1-1 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2018-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Ross County 0-0 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2012-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · Ross County 5-3 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2012-03-03T15:00:00.000Z · Ross County 2-1 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2012-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Ross County 0-0 Queen of the South (Championship)
- 2011-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Ross County 2-0 Queen of the South (Championship)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ross County win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.