· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Rostov II vs Pobeda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rostov II and 1.03 for Pobeda, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Rostov II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rostov II win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rostov II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rostov II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Rostov II and 1.03 for Pobeda, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Rostov II
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevastopol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahter Taganrog · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugansk · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Chayka 2 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda · 4-0 (W)
Pobeda
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nart Cherkessk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyltash · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Angust Nazran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | -38 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -20 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | KDV | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Akron II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 27 |
| 1 | Orenburg II | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 2 | Ural II | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 3 | Izhevsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 5 | Nosta | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 6 | Chelyabinsk II | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rostov II win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.