Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov na Donu · Analysis updated 20:00 UTC
Rostov W vs Krasnodar W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Rostov W and 1.65 for Krasnodar W, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Krasnodar W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Krasnodar W win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rostov W home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krasnodar W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Rostov W
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moskva W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Yenisey W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ryazan W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
Krasnodar W
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moskva W · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · Rostov W 0-2 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2025-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 0-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2025-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 0-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2024-11-16T09:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 1-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2024-06-21T14:30:00.000Z · Rostov W 0-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2023-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 1-0 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 1-4 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2023-03-11T11:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 2-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2022-05-22T16:30:00.000Z · Rostov W 3-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2022-03-25T12:00:00.000Z · Rostov W 0-1 Krasnodar W (Supreme Division Women)
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 53 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 49 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 43 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 40 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov W | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva W | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 17 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -38 | 13 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 20 | 1 | 6 | 13 | -30 | 9 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 19 | 0 | 3 | 16 | -37 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Krasnodar W win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.