· Analysis updated 01:21 UTC
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 and 2.15 for Chemnitzer FC U19, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Chemnitzer FC U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chemnitzer FC U19 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chemnitzer FC U19 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chemnitzer FC U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 27% / 21% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 and 2.15 for Chemnitzer FC U19, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig U19 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 2-6 (L)
Chemnitzer FC U19
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC U19 · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 0-4 Chemnitzer FC U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 0-5 Chemnitzer FC U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chemnitzer FC U19 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.