Stadion an der Hafenstrasse · Referee S. Schreiner · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 2.35 for FC Viktoria Köln, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives FC Viktoria Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Viktoria Köln win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rot-Weiß Essen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Viktoria Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 19% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 2.35 for FC Viktoria Köln, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Rot-Weiß Essen
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-0 (W)
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Meppen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2026-03-22T18:30:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 2-1 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2025-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2025-03-12T18:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 0-1 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2024-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 2-1 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2024-01-23T18:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 3-1 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2023-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 0-0 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2023-02-13T18:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 0-1 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2022-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 1-4 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 15 |
| 7 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | SV Wehen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Verl | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Viktoria Köln win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.