Germany · 3. Liga · Regular Season - 414:30

14:30 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.90 for FC Viktoria Köln, a combined total of 4.42. That distribution gives Rot-Weiß Essen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Rot-Weiß Essen to Win

51.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.52 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rot-Weiß Essen win52%
Draw19%
FC Viktoria Köln win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals82%
Over 3.5 goals64%
Both teams to score78%

Correct score

  • 2–17.3%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 3–16.1%
  • 3–25.8%
  • 1–15.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Rot-Weiß Essen home form

    9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rot-Weiß Essen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 19% / 29% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.52 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.90 for FC Viktoria Köln, a combined 4.42 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Recent form

Rot-Weiß Essen

  • 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 2-5 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 0-3 (L)

FC Viktoria Köln

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.