Stadion an der Hafenstrasse · Referee M. Lotz · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.35 for Würzburger Kickers, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rot-Weiß Essen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rot-Weiß Essen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Würzburger Kickers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-Weiß Essen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.35 for Würzburger Kickers, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Rot-Weiß Essen
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-0 (W)
Würzburger Kickers
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · Rot-Weiß Essen 6-2 Würzburger Kickers (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.