Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Sportfreunde Lotte Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Rot-weiss Oberhausen and 0.59 for Sportfreunde Lotte, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Rot-weiss Oberhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win

81.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.68 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rot-weiss Oberhausen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportfreunde Lotte away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-weiss Oberhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Rot-weiss Oberhausen and 0.59 for Sportfreunde Lotte, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win82%

Draw13%

Sportfreunde Lotte win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

2–013.6%
3–012.2%
1–010.1%
4–08.2%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-5 (L)

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	10	1	2	19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rot-weiss Oberhausen win, at 81.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.