· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Rothes vs Keith Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rothes and 2.75 for Keith, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Keith the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Keith win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rothes home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Keith away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Keith to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 26% / 18% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Rothes and 2.75 for Keith, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–15.1%
Recent form
Rothes
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brora Rangers · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Strathspey Thistle · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buckie Thistle · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wick Academy · 3-2 (W)
Keith
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brora Rangers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buckie Thistle · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 32 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Strathspey Thistle | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Forres Mechanics | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Buckie Thistle | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 8 | Banks O' Dee | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Clachnacuddin | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Turriff United | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Huntly | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Nairn County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Lossiemouth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Deveronvale | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Keith | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 10 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -23 | 6 |
| 18 | Rothes | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -44 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Keith win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.