Volgograd Arena · Referee O. Zhuravlev · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Rotor Volgograd vs Chelyabinsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Rotor Volgograd and 1.08 for Chelyabinsk, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Rotor Volgograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rotor Volgograd win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rotor Volgograd home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chelyabinsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Rotor Volgograd
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
Chelyabinsk
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 4-1 Chelyabinsk (First League)
- 2025-11-24T16:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 0-2 Chelyabinsk (First League)
- 2025-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 0-1 Chelyabinsk (First League)
- 2024-05-22T13:30:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 1-2 Chelyabinsk (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
- 2024-05-05T15:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 1-0 Chelyabinsk (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rotor Volgograd win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.