Volgograd Arena · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Rotor Volgograd vs Volga Ulyanovsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rotor Volgograd and 1.08 for Volga Ulyanovsk, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Rotor Volgograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rotor Volgograd win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rotor Volgograd home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Volga Ulyanovsk away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Rotor Volgograd
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
Volga Ulyanovsk
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 0-0 Volga Ulyanovsk (First League)
- 2026-02-18T09:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 1-3 Volga Ulyanovsk (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 2-1 Volga Ulyanovsk (First League)
- 2024-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 1-1 Volga Ulyanovsk (Cup)
- 2023-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 1-1 Volga Ulyanovsk (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Rotor Volgograd 2-1 Volga Ulyanovsk (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 37 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 4 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Veles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rotor Volgograd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 16 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rotor Volgograd win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.