· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Rouen vs Al Wakrah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Rouen and 0.87 for Al Wakrah, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Rouen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rouen win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rouen home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Wakrah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rouen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Rouen and 0.87 for Al Wakrah, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Rouen
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Thionville Lusitanos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 2-0 (W)
Al Wakrah
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Sailiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rouen win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.