Stade Robert Diochon · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Rouen and 0.74 for Bourg-en-bresse 01, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Rouen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rouen win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rouen home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.70 | 54.1% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +2.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 84.9% | 85.2% | 1.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 62.8% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 6.76 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.8% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 22.5% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.3% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.9% | 43.7% | 2.29 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rouen
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Thionville Lusitanos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 2-0 (W)
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Caen · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-06T18:30:00.000Z · Rouen 1-3 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
- 2025-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · Rouen 1-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
- 2025-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · Rouen 2-1 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
- 2024-11-22T18:30:00.000Z · Rouen 1-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
- 2013-02-09T19:00:00.000Z · Rouen 1-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
- 2012-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · Rouen 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rouen win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.