France · Ligue 3 · Matchweek 318:45

18:45 UTC

Thursday, 20 August 2026

Stade Robert Diochon · Analysis updated 10:08 UTC

Rouen vs Quevilly Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rouen and 0.50 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Rouen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rouen win

47.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rouen win47%
Draw35%
Quevilly win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals44%
Over 2.5 goals19%
Over 3.5 goals7%
Both teams to score25%

Correct score

  • 0–022.3%
  • 1–022.3%
  • 0–111.2%
  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–011.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Quevilly away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rouen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 35% / 18% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.00 goals for Rouen and 0.50 for Quevilly, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 25%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.

Recent form

Rouen

    Quevilly

    • 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Oissel · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.