· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
ROW Rybnik vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.13 for Carina Gubin, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives ROW Rybnik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ROW Rybnik win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ROW Rybnik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carina Gubin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ROW Rybnik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.13 for Carina Gubin, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–26.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 45.1% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +2.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.85 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 44.1% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 76.5% | 76.6% | 1.31 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 55.9% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 24.4% | 23.4% | 4.27 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 78.4% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
ROW Rybnik
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)
Carina Gubin
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 4-0 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ROW Rybnik win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.