ROW Rybnik vs Stal Brzeg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.72 for Stal Brzeg, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Stal Brzeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stal Brzeg win

45.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ROW Rybnik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stal Brzeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.72 for Stal Brzeg, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

ROW Rybnik win31%

Draw24%

Stal Brzeg win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.2%
0–17.7%
2–17.4%
0–26.6%

Recent form

ROW Rybnik

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)

Stal Brzeg

2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T10:00:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 1-2 Stal Brzeg (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-03-27T14:30:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 2-1 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
2020-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 0-2 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stal Brzeg win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.