ROW Rybnik vs Stal Brzeg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.42 for Stal Brzeg, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives ROW Rybnik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

ROW Rybnik win

45.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ROW Rybnik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ROW Rybnik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for ROW Rybnik and 1.42 for Stal Brzeg, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

ROW Rybnik win46%

Draw23%

Stal Brzeg win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.2%
1–27.3%
1–07.2%
2–26.5%

Recent form

ROW Rybnik

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)

Stal Brzeg

2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T10:00:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 1-2 Stal Brzeg (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-03-27T14:30:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 2-1 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
2020-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · ROW Rybnik 0-2 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	10	1	3	11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	8	4	2	8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	7	2	5	7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	6	4	4	6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	6	3	5	5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	6	3	5	2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	6	0	7	-4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	5	2	7	1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	4	3	7	2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	3	5	6	-10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	4	1	9	-11	13
16	Rakow II	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ROW Rybnik win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.