· Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Royal Vision vs Kayanza United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Royal Vision and 0.47 for Kayanza United, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Royal Vision the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Royal Vision win
81.3% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 0.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Royal Vision home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kayanza United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Royal Vision to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 14% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Royal Vision and 0.47 for Kayanza United, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.1%
- 3–013.3%
- 1–013.0%
- 4–08.2%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Royal Vision
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ngozi City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vital'O · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Star · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flambeau du Centre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Star · 0-0 (D)
Kayanza United
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bumamuru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rukinzo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Royal Vision · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T13:30:00.000Z · Royal Vision 1-0 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2025-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Royal Vision 3-1 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2025-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Royal Vision 9-2 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2024-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · Royal Vision 1-3 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Le Messager Ngozi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Musongati | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Flambeau du Centre | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Vital'O | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Young Star | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Royal Vision win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.