Rozova dolina vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Rozova dolina and 1.80 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Rozova dolina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rozova dolina home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rozova dolina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Rozova dolina and 1.80 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rozova dolina win40%

Draw22%

Neftochimic Burgas win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.8%
2–18.0%
1–27.9%
2–27.2%
1–04.9%

Recent form

Rozova dolina

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftochimic Burgas · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dimitrovgrad · 2-2 (D)

Neftochimic Burgas

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 1-3 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2026-07-08T15:00:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 1-3 Neftochimic Burgas (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 0-1 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2025-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 1-1 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2019-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 1-3 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2018-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Rozova dolina 0-3 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.