· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.49 for A Madrid III, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives A Madrid III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RSD Alcalá home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
A Madrid III away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates A Madrid III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.49 for A Madrid III, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
RSD Alcalá
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)
A Madrid III
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Numancia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Salamanca UDS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | CF Talavera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Valladolid II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | SS Reyes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Guadalajara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Navalcarnero | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Ávila | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Tordesillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Calvo Sotelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Albacete II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.