· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
RSD Alcalá vs Gimnástica Segoviana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.33 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives RSD Alcalá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RSD Alcalá home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RSD Alcalá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.33 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
RSD Alcalá
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)
Gimnástica Segoviana
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.