RSD Alcalá vs Gimnástica Segoviana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.77 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives RSD Alcalá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

RSD Alcalá home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RSD Alcalá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for RSD Alcalá and 1.77 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

RSD Alcalá win45%

Draw21%

Gimnástica Segoviana win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.1%
1–18.0%
2–27.2%
1–27.1%
3–15.5%

Recent form

RSD Alcalá

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)

Gimnástica Segoviana

2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.