RSD Alcalá vs Rayo Vallecano II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for RSD Alcalá and 0.70 for Rayo Vallecano II, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives RSD Alcalá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

RSD Alcalá win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

RSD Alcalá home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RSD Alcalá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for RSD Alcalá and 0.70 for Rayo Vallecano II, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

RSD Alcalá win58%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano II win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.2%
2–012.8%
1–111.3%
0–010.3%
2–18.9%

Recent form

RSD Alcalá

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)

Rayo Vallecano II

2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Galapagar · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leganés II · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cala Pozuelo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Móstoles · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Majadahonda · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is RSD Alcalá win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.