· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for RSD Alcalá and 0.73 for Real Madrid III, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives RSD Alcalá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RSD Alcalá win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RSD Alcalá home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid III away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RSD Alcalá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for RSD Alcalá and 0.73 for Real Madrid III, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
RSD Alcalá
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)
Real Madrid III
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Talavera · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Numancia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Salamanca UDS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | CF Talavera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Valladolid II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | SS Reyes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Guadalajara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Navalcarnero | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Ávila | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Tordesillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Calvo Sotelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Albacete II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RSD Alcalá win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.