Ak Bars Arena · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Rubin Kazan W vs CSKA Moskva W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Rubin Kazan W and 2.21 for CSKA Moskva W, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives CSKA Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Moskva W win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubin Kazan W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Moskva W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 9% / 17% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Rubin Kazan W and 2.21 for CSKA Moskva W, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 0–310.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Rubin Kazan W
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvezda Perm W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 1-0 (W)
CSKA Moskva W
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yenisey W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda Perm W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 53 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 49 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 43 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 40 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov W | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva W | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 17 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -38 | 13 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 20 | 1 | 6 | 13 | -30 | 9 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 19 | 0 | 3 | 16 | -37 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Moskva W win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.