Kazan Arena · Referee Andrey Prokopov, Russia · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Rubin and 0.94 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Rubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubin home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Makhachkala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.12 | 81.5% | 83.9% | 1.19 | +2.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.65 | 56.1% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.41 | 68.4% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.49 | 63.8% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.41 | 39.8% | 40.8% | 2.45 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.36 | 28.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 71.4% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 60.2% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.63 | 36.2% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.04 | 31.6% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.11 | 43.9% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -2.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.95 | 18.5% | 16.1% | 6.21 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rubin
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · Rubin 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2026-02-28T17:00:00.000Z · Rubin 1-2 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2025-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · Rubin 1-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2024-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · Rubin 3-2 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2024-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · Rubin 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2023-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · Rubin 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (First League)
- 2022-11-06T13:00:00.000Z · Rubin 1-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (First League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.