Rubin vs Fakel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rubin and 0.72 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Rubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rubin win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rubin home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fakel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rubin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Rubin and 0.72 for Fakel, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Rubin win61%

Draw24%

Fakel win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.0%
2–012.8%
1–110.9%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Rubin

2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)

Fakel

2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	10	7	1	2	7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	6	4	0	9	22
3	Zenit	10	7	0	3	11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	9	20
6	Rubin	10	2	6	2	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	2	6	2	1	12
8	Baltika	10	3	3	4	2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	4	0	6	-5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Akhmat	10	2	5	3	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	2	4	4	2	10
14	Akron	10	1	5	4	-8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	1	2	7	-15	5
16	Fakel	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rubin win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.