Ak Bars Arena · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rubin and 1.45 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubin home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Krylia Sovetov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Rubin
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · Rubin 2-0 Krylia Sovetov (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Rubin 0-0 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2025-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · Rubin 2-0 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2025-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Rubin 1-1 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2024-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · Rubin 0-2 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2024-07-04T08:00:00.000Z · Rubin 2-2 Krylia Sovetov (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Rubin 0-2 Krylya Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2023-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · Rubin 2-1 Krylya Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2023-07-12T09:00:00.000Z · Rubin 0-1 Krylya Sovetov (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-28T14:00:00.000Z · Rubin 2-1 Krylya Sovetov (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.