La Arboleda · Referee D. Lopez · Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Rubio NU vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Rubio NU and 1.00 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubio NU home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Asuncion away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.7%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 0-1 (L)
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T20:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-15T21:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-10-21T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-08-11T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-04-28T21:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-2 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-02-19T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 3-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2016-12-03T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-3 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-08-27T21:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-04-06T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-3 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2016-01-29T22:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 2-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Apertura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 31 |
| 7 | Club Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -17 | 22 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -27 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.