La Arboleda · Referee B. Romero · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Rubio NU vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rubio NU and 1.63 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Asuncion win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubio NU home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Asuncion away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 0-1 (L)
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T20:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-15T21:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-10-21T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-08-11T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-04-28T21:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-2 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-02-19T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 3-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2016-12-03T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-3 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-08-27T21:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-04-06T23:10:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-3 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2016-01-29T22:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 2-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Asuncion win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.