La Arboleda · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 05:00 UTC
Rubio NU vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rubio NU and 1.42 for Sportivo Ameliano, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Sportivo Ameliano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubio NU home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Ameliano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Recoleta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
Sportivo Ameliano
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 2 de Mayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 2-1 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-07-28T19:00:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-03-23T23:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 1-2 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-01-25T23:15:00.000Z · Rubio NU 2-2 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2021-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Intermedia)
- 2021-07-05T18:45:00.000Z · Rubio NU 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano (Division Intermedia)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.