Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski · Referee T. Marciniak · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Ruch Chorzów vs Unia Skierniewice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 0.95 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Ruch Chorzów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ruch Chorzów home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Unia Skierniewice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ruch Chorzów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Ruch Chorzów and 0.95 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.2%
- 1–014.2%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Ruch Chorzów
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 3-1 (W)
Unia Skierniewice
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Odra Opole | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.