Rudar Mursko Središće vs Koprivnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rudar Mursko Središće and 1.80 for Koprivnica, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Koprivnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Koprivnica win

51.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rudar Mursko Središće home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Koprivnica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Koprivnica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Rudar Mursko Središće and 1.80 for Koprivnica, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rudar Mursko Središće win25%

Draw23%

Koprivnica win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.7%
0–19.0%
0–28.1%
2–16.4%

Recent form

Rudar Mursko Središće

2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 0-1 (L)
2025-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Domašinec · 4-0 (W)
2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Daruvar · 3-2 (W)
2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 2-2 (D)
2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pitomača · 3-1 (W)

Koprivnica

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grobničan Čavle · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third NL - Sjever table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Koprivnica	15	11	2	2	28	35
2	Graničar Đurđevac	15	10	4	1	35	34
3	Dinamo Predavac	15	9	4	2	15	31
4	Rudar Mursko Središće	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Bilogora 91	15	8	1	6	3	25
6	Međimurec Pretetinec	15	7	4	4	1	25
7	Polet	15	7	2	6	-2	23
8	Graničar Kotoriba	14	7	0	7	6	21
9	Pitomača	15	5	4	6	-9	19
10	Slatina	15	5	3	7	-4	18
11	Podravina Ludbreg	15	3	6	6	-10	15
12	Medjimurje Cakovec	15	3	4	8	-9	13
13	Garić Garešnica	14	3	4	7	-13	13
14	Daruvar	14	3	2	9	-14	11
15	Nedelišće	14	3	1	10	-16	10
16	Dinamo Domašinec	15	2	3	10	-25	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Koprivnica win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.