Gradski Stadion · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Rudar vs Berane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Rudar and 0.82 for Berane, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Rudar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rudar win
71.0% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Berane away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rudar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Rudar and 0.82 for Berane, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.6%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Rudar
Berane
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rudar win, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.