Gradski stadion Velika Gorica · Referee Antonio Škobić, Croatia · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Rudes vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rudes and 3.30 for HNK Hajduk Split, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split win
77.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 3.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rudes home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Hajduk Split away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 10% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Rudes and 3.30 for HNK Hajduk Split, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–46.6%
- 0–36.5%
- 0–25.9%
Recent form
Rudes
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)
HNK Hajduk Split
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vardarac · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Hajduk Split win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.